Table of Contents
شادي صقر
تدعو الدكتوره مها الزكي المدرس المساعد بقسم الإحصاء التطبيقي والتأمين بكليه التجارة بجامعه المنصورة
لحضور كل الزملاء والباحثين لمناقشه رسالة الدكتوراه المقدمه من الدكتوره مها الزكي المدرس المساعد بقسم الإحصاء التطبيقي والتأمين
وننفرد ببعض تفاصيل الرساله
Summary
This study explores the prediction of central mortality rates (m_x) using two distinct datasets: Egyptian census data and data from Egyptian insurance companies. While the Chain Ladder method is traditionally employed in property insurance for claims reserving, this research innovatively applies it to mortality rate forecasting—a domain typically associated with life insurance. Notably, this marks the first application of the Chain Ladder method to Egyptian demographic data.
The predicted mortality rates from both datasets are compared to a standard mortality table to evaluate their accuracy. The results reveal significant differences:
Census data produced mortality rates with substantial deviations from the standard table.
Insurance company data, however, yielded mortality rates closely aligned with the standard table.
This discrepancy underscores the limitations of census data for mortality rate predictions in this context, while highlighting the potential utility of insurance data for such analyses. The study contributes to the field by demonstrating the adaptability of the Chain Ladder method to mortality forecasting and providing insights into the suitability of different data sources for actuarial applications in the Egyptian context.
